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Retirement Portfolios

Saving for Retirement with Bruce Lange

I often get asked to provide investment advice because of my background. Many of our clients want guidance on investing their reserves or need help structuring their retirement portfolios. Although I no longer do this for a living, as an MBA in Finance from Berkeley, the long-time Treasurer of a Fortune 500 company managing $10 billion, someone who held a Series 65 securities license and has passed the rigorous Certified Financial Planner exam, I have both the education and experience to help.

The father of modern investment analysis, Benjamin Graham, and his more modern counterpart, Warren Buffet, would certainly argue that with diligence and a level head, it is possible to select winning stocks. Unfortunately, very few individuals possess the necessary skills, patience, or temperament. I’ll quote Warren Buffet because he clearly understands the perils of analysis that often just skims the surface. “A low-cost index fund is the most sensible equity investment for most investors. My mentor, Ben Graham, took this position many years ago, and everything I have seen since convinces me of its truth.”

The decision on whether to select actively managed funds or the more personalized approach of using an advisor who charges an AUM (Assets Under Management) fee to manage your investments is even clearer than whether to select your own stocks. The fund manager must pick the right investments, and the superior returns must more than offset additional fees and frictional costs. They don’t. John Bogle (founder of the Vanguard, the largest fund family in the world) studied this topic for four decades, and his analysis of active versus passive is that “the odds in favor of owning a consistently successful equity fund are less than one out of a hundred.” The chances of predicting which fund will be consistently successful are even less than that. Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel Laureate who was given access to complete data at Goldman Sachs, analyzed manager performance at a major financial services firm for almost half a year and concluded, “more important, the year to year correlation between the outcomes of mutual funds is very small, barely higher than zero The successful funds are mostly lucky.”

The evidence is conclusive.

Fund managers fail the basic test of skill, which is a persistent achievement. Given that luck is the prime determinant of active fund management, actively managing a fund means that a fund will do better than its peers in some years, it will do worse. So, selecting an actively managed fund just adds volatility to the portfolio. The evidence on timing the markets – either asset allocation or stocks – is even worse. So, my advice is always to spend a few hundred dollars on hourly advice from someone competent to craft a basic allocation model and select a few low-cost funds. I usually suggest that people contact the Garret Planning Network for a fiduciary. (I get no kickbacks for the endorsement and was once a member. So, I know the organization well.)

As a last point, I’ll make a comment that rationalization is often a more important driver of human behavior than sex. When was the last time anyone went a week without rationalization or self-justification? It shouldn’t be amazing, amazing, how the securities profession can justify the high fees that make them one of the highest paid professions.

 

We are certainly not Retirement Asset Planners, but we have much to say about smart financials. If you want to engage our firm on our outsourced accounting services, we hope you will contact us. We would be happy just to hear what accounting process or technology challenges you are having.

It’s what we do every day.